The Niners and Eagles are meeting for the first time in the playoffs since the 2023 NFC Championship Game. In a game which the Niners had to play Christian McCaffrey at QB in the second half, the Eagles routed the Niners 31-7 on their way to the Super Bowl.
Fast forward to today, and these two teams are meeting in the Wild Card round, with the Niners coming in at a record of 12-5, and the Eagles coming in at 11-6.
The Eagles are coming off their Super Bowl run last year, but have had their ups and downs this season, involving multiple winning and losing streaks throughout the year. There is no denying the amount of talent on Philadelphia’s roster, and their defense has looked like one of the best in the NFL.
For the Niners, the team came into the year making strategic roster moves to help shape their future. Even with a fully healthy team, a 12-5 record would be considered a great season. Now factor in Bosa and Warner missing the season, and players like Purdy, Kittle, and Pearsall missing multiple games, it’s truly remarkable that they finished the regular season with 12 wins.
Now, let’s breakdown what they keys to this game’s outcome will be.
1. Get Saquon going on the ground
There’s no doubt Saquon and the O-Line was the key factor in Philly’s Super Bowl run last season. Barkley amassed over 2k rushing yards throughout the regular season, and carried that momentum over into the postseason. Behind the Eagles dominant O-Line, they were able to demoralize teams and dominate the time of possession.
This season has been very different though, and Barkley has seen his production be nearly cut in half from last season. There could be many reasons for this, such as Lane Johnson missing games, or Kevin Patullo’s play calling. But, if there was a game in which the Eagles could get back to their old ways, it would be this week.
The Niners defense has been barely holding up since Warner and Bosa got injured, just playing well enough to win games. Now factor in that the Niners starting linebackers will be a special teams player and a guy signed off the street, this will be a game in which Philly will want to pound the rock and dominate the time of possession.
Note: Lane Johnson appears on track to return, which could be a major boost to Philly’s run game if he’s able to go.
2. Brock Purdy and the Niners Offense
For over half the season, fans across the league were wondering if Mac Jones should be the starter for the Niners. In large part, this was due to Jones resurgence and stellar play, leading the Niners to a 5-3 record in games in which he started. But ever since Purdy’s return from injury, he has been stellar, and the offense has taken off.
The Niners had been riding the offense to wins until last week, in which Seattle held them to just 3 points. That performance alone has certainly shifted the narrative around how much this offense can carry them, and with a dominant Philly D, the Niners offense will need to bounce back and help carry them if they want to come out with a win.
Note: Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall were both absent from last week’s game. Williams appears that he has a better chance to play, while Pearsall seems more like a long shot. They are both questionable going into Sunday.
3. Red Zone Offense
This perhaps will be the most important factor that will determine Sunday’s game. In order for either team to win, they need to convert red zone possessions into TDs.
For the Eagles, they have been statistically worse at the Tush Push this year than prior years. Still, if they are inside the 2 yard line, they have a very good chance of pushing their way in. They’re ranked first in converting red zone possessions into TDs, doing so at about a 70% rate.
On the other side, the Niners offense has been very reliant upon converting these possessions into TDs. Look no further than last week’s game, where a costly Purdy interception ended any chance they had of winning. Still, they’re ranked fifth in converting red zone possessions into TDs, doing it at around a 65% rate.
In a playoff game where the margins are so thin, red zone possessions will determine the outcome.
With all this being said, what is my prediction for this Sunday’s matchup?
Prediction: 49ers 20, Eagles 17
The Eagles have one of, if not the best defense in the NFL this year. So why go with the Niners?
The Eagles offense has been leaking oil throughout the end of this season. Their defense will keep this game tight, but I expect the Niners offense to handle the time of possession. Keeping the ball out of Philly’s hands, and preventing them building any rhythm on offense.
